I think that this is going to be nearly impossible for non-vertically integrated automobile OEMs. They may try, but they will likely fail. Here are a few reasons why I think this is the case:
1. PPF installation is a highly manual labour intensive and skilled job. It's going to be difficult for OEMs to find and train the people to do this. It's going to be completely impossible at scale.
2. Custom levels of PPF result in each car being somewhat unique, which would disrupt production lines and cause delays. Customers are already unhappy with current delivery times. They're unlikely to risk making them even longer.
3. The dealerships will push back hard on the OEMs for trying to take a service that traditionally belongs to them, and is a way for dealerships to increase their low margins. OEMs will have to decide whether upsetting the balance with their dealerships - whom they're reliant on - is worth chasing a $500M total market product.
Now, I think vertically integrated auto OEMs like Tesla will fair better at offering PPF because they don't need to do it at the production level. They can do it at the dealership level and keep it in house since they own the dealerships themselves. But still, you can read on forums about how enthusiasts strongly recommend specialized PPF shops due to the superior quality of install.
What is the bear case valuation in the event OEMs successfully implement PPF? I believe this would likely expand the TAM rather than take share away from Xpel, so just whatever you'd value Xpel at at maturity. It's hard for me to see how anything below 15X EPS makes sense in this scenario given Xpel's high ROIC metrics.
I overestimated revenue growth. The quarter wasn't great, but certainly not disastrous either. The guidance drop from 15% to 8-10% revenue growth is what is hurting the stock price.
I overestimated revenue growth. I think it's just that simple. Tough one when management has been historically conservative and guides for 15% growth but then it doesn't materialize.
Fantastic level of detail!
Now, if we zoom out, how do you look at the risk that, one day, car manufacturers have a competitive PPF offering (bear case valuation)?
I think that this is going to be nearly impossible for non-vertically integrated automobile OEMs. They may try, but they will likely fail. Here are a few reasons why I think this is the case:
1. PPF installation is a highly manual labour intensive and skilled job. It's going to be difficult for OEMs to find and train the people to do this. It's going to be completely impossible at scale.
2. Custom levels of PPF result in each car being somewhat unique, which would disrupt production lines and cause delays. Customers are already unhappy with current delivery times. They're unlikely to risk making them even longer.
3. The dealerships will push back hard on the OEMs for trying to take a service that traditionally belongs to them, and is a way for dealerships to increase their low margins. OEMs will have to decide whether upsetting the balance with their dealerships - whom they're reliant on - is worth chasing a $500M total market product.
Now, I think vertically integrated auto OEMs like Tesla will fair better at offering PPF because they don't need to do it at the production level. They can do it at the dealership level and keep it in house since they own the dealerships themselves. But still, you can read on forums about how enthusiasts strongly recommend specialized PPF shops due to the superior quality of install.
What is the bear case valuation in the event OEMs successfully implement PPF? I believe this would likely expand the TAM rather than take share away from Xpel, so just whatever you'd value Xpel at at maturity. It's hard for me to see how anything below 15X EPS makes sense in this scenario given Xpel's high ROIC metrics.
Well thought-through. Really appreciated! Good luck with your CFA!
XPEL drops 32% after Q1 earning. Any thought? China impact?
I overestimated revenue growth. The quarter wasn't great, but certainly not disastrous either. The guidance drop from 15% to 8-10% revenue growth is what is hurting the stock price.
I'll be curious to hear your thoughts on this quarter's results.
I overestimated revenue growth. I think it's just that simple. Tough one when management has been historically conservative and guides for 15% growth but then it doesn't materialize.
Hey Luke! I just wanted to mention that I linked this piece here:
https://www.libertyrpf.com/p/495-xpel-and-anchoring-bias-apple
Keep up the good work 💚 🥃
Thank you 💚 🥃
Thanks for sharing, very interesting.
You can’t just share estimates without giving an explanation for why they should be higher/lower